Worst-case scenario

Democrats are freaking out. They’ve been beaten down, had elections (possibly) stolen from them, and become perennial political losers. So as things look really good for not only an Obama win, but a trifecta sweep of all branches of national elected office, more and more worry starts to set in. Newly registered dems won’t show up, terrorists will strike over the weekend, latent racism will suddenly spike to the surface, polls have it all wrong, fear will win the day.

I’ve got a little bit of some of that. I don’t know how, but I feel as though something, something will go wrong. To help myself feel a little better, I’ve huddled under the warm blanket of CNN which lets me predict the presidential election myself.

I’m not a pessimist. I subscribe to the perspective “hope for the best, prepare for the worst.” So while I hope for the best, here is my electoral map prediction in which I prepare for the worst. To start with, let’s say McCain pulls off surprise wins in Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. (All indications suggest strongly that McCain will not win Pennsylvania, so I’m not giving him that.) Now let’s offset things even more in his favor: I’ll also giving him all those states still up in the air: North Dakota, Missouri, and North Carolina. And what the hell, I’m feeling generous. I’ll also give him Obama-leaning states like Nevada and New Mexico.

Even in my worst-case scenario, Obama still squeaks by with 20 electoral college wins, nine over the needed 270. Here’s my map:

And now, here’s my “hope for the best” prediction, one in which Obama wins by a whopping 367-171:

The truth probably lies somewhere in between, which is good news for Democrats. But this only happens if intentions turn into reality — in other words, if people vote.

One week to go…

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3 Responses to “Worst-case scenario”

  1. Thank you thank you thank you. I think after looking at this that I can sleep tonight.

  2. Yeah, I misjudged Indiana somehow. That’s much tighter now. Florida seems to be tightening as well.

    Still, I feel cautiously optimistic. We’ll see what happens…

  3. […] 6, 2008 I wasn’t too far off with my map prediction. From the numbers, it looks like in the end Missouri will be McCain’s and North Carolina will […]

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