My dad sent me an email the other day saying he was “becoming increasingly concerned” about the changing rhetoric between North and South Korea. The north and south have been yelling at each other a lot in the two years that I’ve been here. From what I gather, it’s because of the new, tougher policies of the ROK government. The DPRK saying that they’re going to turn the south into a sea of ashes makes the newspapers, but it isn’t really news; it’s a regular occurrence.
I don’t pretend to know much about the relationship between the two. But I kind of see the whole of Korea as one dysfuctional family. Culturally, the two together are a single entity. The border is not a division between nations; it’s a division in ideology, largely formed by powers outside of Korea itself. At the risk of sounding insensitive it’s a little like two brothers who have grown apart through the meddling of their parents (who, in this metaphor, are those powers who drove them apart). There’s a lot of jealousy and anger between the two. So there’s a lot of yelling and posturing and the parents kind of watch over them getting ready to separate them if it comes to blows. (In truth, this is a pretty lame metaphor because in reality the two brothers would like to divorce their parents and then fuse into a single human being. The fight is over what kind of person that would be. But weak as it is, it still helps me to conceptualize things a little.)
No one here seems to worry about it, at least publicly. They certainly don’t talk about it, Koreans and foreigners alike. People here are more concerned about the dire economic situation (again, foreigners and Koreans alike). But lately things have changed, at least a little. It’s been a slow build. And the fact that my father is sending me emails means the U.S. news media is beginning to talk about it more. If its in the news in the States it means the U.S. government is paying more attention. The reason is the impending satellite missile launch. If the DPRK can fire something into Japanese airspace, or hit Guam, or hit Alaska, the U.S. is going to get involved more strongly.
The United States government — the new Obama administration — has a decision to make. They can let it happen, condemn it, and then otherwise ignore it while moving ahead diplomatically. Or they can shoot it down, something the Washington Post recently advocated. One thing is for sure. If they shoot it down, the north will definitely not ignore that. They’ve ruffled their feathers so much that there’s not much more to yell. Things could get really nasty, not in words this time, but in action. We’ll have to see what happens.
I was talking to a Korean friend the other day. Again, Koreans don’t seem to like talking about their insane nothern brother and I rarely ask people about it. But this time I did. Her initial response was common: a laugh, followed by a comment about how crazy they are. But she then said that in her opinion this situation might be more than words. Her concern isn’t so much the missile test, but a dispute along the maritime border. This area has flared up a couple of times before. But she said that the newest development is that Chinese ships have left the area, an indication that they’re worried about some kind of significant outbreak. If there’s an actual sea battle, that’s, well, that’s not good either.
I don’t believe that troops from the north are suddenly going to flood across the DMZ and invade Seoul. I just don’t see that happening. It’s far more likely that all sides will step up the dialogue, reach some tepid agreements, and maybe the ROK will soften their stance and offer a little more aid to the north.
But all this does make me think about contingency plans. I’ve only had one discussion about this with my foreigner friends, around the time the Kim Jong Il death rumors started. Apparently, if the shit hits the fan, we’re supposed to go to the nearest U.S. military base, where we’ll be protected and sent back to the United States. I don’t even know where the nearest military base is or how I would get there. Is there even a base still in Busan?
I guess I should find out more about this stuff.